The sudden death of South Carolina U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham has triggered an immediate scramble over who will fill one of South Carolina’s most influential political offices.
While Republican Governor Henry McMaster will make the first move by appointing a replacement to serve out Graham’s term through January 3, the longer-term battle for the seat will be decided through a special election primary that could reshape the state’s Republican political landscape.
The death of U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham has done more than leave South Carolina without one of its longest-serving senators. It has set in motion a replacement process that could become one of the year’s biggest Republican political tests. To the detriment of the GOP, an open primary free-for-all special election is coming soon.
Under South Carolina law, the filing period for a special Republican primary begins one week after the second Tuesday following the candidate’s death, opening on July 21. The special primary is then scheduled for Aug. 11, and if no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election would be held two weeks later on Aug. 25.
Are the GOP voters smart enough to pick the “right” candidate to win the general election? Not necessarily. But maybe the state is red enough to keep the seat no matter which Republican is running and no matter who wins. We can only hope so.
But here’s the kicker: The state does not register voters by party, meaning ANY qualified voter may vote in the Republican special primary because it’s an open primary election and it’s a separate one than the ones that have already taken place.
Critics of the system argue open primaries creates opportunities for crossover voting intended to influence the opposing party’s nominee, while supporters say it gives independents and unaffiliated voters a broader voice in choosing candidates.
Republicans have already been fighting the system. On Friday, July 10, the Hill had a report about the South Carolina GOP suing the state to stop the open primary system. Attorneys wrote in the lawsuit, “An open primary system permits voters who have not joined the Republican Party to influence the Party’s most important associational act: choosing its nominee, thus depriving the Party of the fundamental right of association and the fundamental right to govern its own affairs.” It is unlikely, however, for this to be resolved before the special primary.
Graham had just cruised through the June Republican primary, defeating five challengers with more than 58% of the vote, avoiding a runoff. Businessman Mark Lynch (he blamed the Iran war on Graham) finished a distant second at roughly 29%, while the remaining candidates split the rest.
Graham’s electoral history also shows why Republicans might still be favored to hold the seat. In 2020, Graham defeated Democrat Jaime Harrison 54.4% to 44.2% – a margin of just over 10 percentage points despite Harrison’s record-breaking fundraising and national attention. But we all know that the left will be pouring a gazillion dollars into this election in November where the new GOP candidate will go up against Democratic Charleston pediatrician Annie Andrews. And it’s looking like she’s courting the “middle” with recent comments about joining her in “setting partisanship aside and offering gratitude” to Graham for his service.
South Carolina has always been a reliable Republican state, having not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1998 and they haven’t won this particular Senate seat since 1960. But that doesn’t mean Republicans can relax.
One complication for the Republicans is timing. Military and overseas ballots have already been sent to voters, according to a report from the Associated Press, adding another layer of complexity as the party prepares for a special election.
Another complication for Republicans is money. Although Lindsey Graham’s campaign committee may still have millions of dollars on hand, federal campaign finance law does not allow those funds to simply be transferred to the eventual Republican nominee. The committee can make only limited contributions to another federal candidate, while the remaining money must be spent or distributed in ways permitted by Federal Election Commission rules, meaning the GOP’s eventual nominee will largely have to build a campaign war chest from scratch.
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