If you’re getting whiplash trying to keep up with what’s happening in Iran, you’re not alone. One minute the headlines suggest Iran has slammed the Strait of Hormuz shut, sending the world’s oil supply into panic mode. The next, President Trump says the waterway is open and ships are moving. When everyone involved has something to gain from controlling the narrative, separating fact from spin isn’t exactly easy.
And sometimes, what sounds like two completely different stories is really two sides describing the same reality from their own perspective.
As things stand, the Strait of Hormuz isn’t completely closed. But it’s also not completely open. Unfortunately for shipping companies, it has become something arguably worse: unpredictable. It’s a giant game of “maybe you’ll make it through, maybe you won’t.”
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Think of it like driving through a neighborhood where someone keeps firing Roman candles into traffic. The north side of the road is technically open but it’s fraught with unpredictability and danger. Whether your insurance company wants you using it is another matter. And if you DO use it, they plan to charge you twenty times times or more than they charged you before the latest Iran “war” was set into motion by President Trump. And many can’t afford that. The south side of the road is a far better choice – but still not a totally safe place to be.
Ships are still moving, just not normally. Many have been hugging the Omani coastline (in the south) instead of using the usual shipping lanes (Iranian territorial waters in the north). Others have been waiting offshore for instructions. Traffic has plunged, insurance costs have exploded, and hundreds of vessels sit idle waiting for conditions to improve.
Iran doesn’t need to sink every tanker to disrupt global trade. Mines, drone threats, and uncertainty have been enough to convince many shipowners that “maybe next week” is the smarter business plan.
This information comes from the Hormuz Strait Monitor website, an independent data dashboard focused on tracking shipping and energy disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. It is not an official government site, academic institution, or major news organization. According to its own description, it is a free service that aggregates publicly available maritime, energy, and shipping data into one place.
The Monitor reports that one of the main problems in Iran is that one side is the political government: the president, foreign ministry and diplomats who have to worry about sanctions, oil revenue, public anger, international pressure and keeping the country from collapsing under its own bad decisions.On the other side is the military-security wing, which means the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The IRGC is not just another branch of the military. It has its own navy, missile forces, intelligence networks, foreign operations arm and major economic interests. It also has a long history of using proxies, threats and pressure tactics to project power across the region. And although President Trump ordered strikes that reportedly crippled much of Iran’s naval capability, they haven’t lost their ability to create chaos. They still have missiles and drones and enough people to threaten shipping without launching a full-scale naval battle.
The Monitor says “The IRGC answers to the Supreme Leader. The foreign ministry answers to the elected government. These are not the same chain of command, and they do not always want the same things.”
The political side may want room to negotiate, calm markets or avoid a full-blown war. The military side may want to show strength, punish enemies, rally hardliners at home or remind the world that Iran can still cause trouble even when it is boxed in. That is why one part of Iran can signal restraint while another flexes its muscles in the Strait of Hormuz. Other times, it IS the strategy for Iran to confuse everyone and keep their enemies guessing.
Now, with a fragile ceasefire in place, ships are slowly returning – but mostly using the south route. It is reportedly coordinated by the US Navy’s Naval Cooperation and Guidance for Shipping (NCAGS). Traffic is increasing, but it’s still well below normal levels, and many ships remain stranded.
So when someone says the Strait of Hormuz is either “wide open” or “completely closed,” the answer is neither. The better description? Imagine a freeway where the speed limit signs have been replaced with “Good luck.” Technically, you can drive through. Whether you want to is an entirely different question.
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