You know the cliché that too many cooks spoil the broth. Well, if that’s the case in the Republican primary fight then the result will be a Trump nomination and the resultant consequences.
Larry Elder got into the race on Tuesday. I like Elder. He’s sharp and articulate. Elder, “America is in decline, but this decline is not inevitable. We can enter a new American Golden Age, but we must choose a leader who can bring us there. That’s why I’m running for President,” Elder wrote in a statement. Good stuff.
Then there’s the appealing Nikki Haley, the young and impressive Vivek Ramaswamy, and the forgettable Asa Hutchinson. Possible candidates include New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, Mike Pence, and Ron DeSantis. That’s a lot of Republican cooks.
If we figure that Trump has a solid 40 percent of the Republican base who turn out in primaries, then the rest of the field has to carve up the remaining votes amongst themselves. Not good for them.
Thus, we could be looking at a 2020 rematch. For too many reasons to mention that is not good for the nation. It pits a senile hack versus a guy loathed by about half the country. Not exactly what the Founders intended or what America deserves.
For that not to happen, before Super Tuesday the Republican Party must settle on DeSantis or Scott. They are the only ones who could take on Trump mano y mano and win. Even then there is danger, and not from Joe Biden.
As a Republican who is not a Trump fan, I would vote for him against Biden. It is simply the better choice assuming the alternative is four more years of this debacle. But I wonder if my populist Trump supporting fellow Republicans would vote for anyone but Trump, even in the general election. I think a significant number would not. They would thus reelect Biden.
If they sit on their hands in the general election Biden wins. If Trump pulls a Teddy Roosevelt and runs a third party race, Biden wins. Would Trump be so self-obsessed to ensure a Biden win because he was turned down during primary season? The odds are 50-50 I think. However, I wouldn’t bet the farm against it.
Thus the first contests will be crucial. If DeSantis or Scott can stay credibly in Trump’s rear view mirror in Iowa and New Hampshire then lesser candidates may consider discretion the better part of valor. But if the field’s numbers are widely dispersed, except for Trump, he will do to them what Lee did at Chancellorsville. That does not bode well for the Republicans. That does not bode well for America.