You may have recently read a lot of press stories on how a Democrat blue wave could overtake Republicans in November.
The authors cite high female registration figures, forgetting that many of those females are Republicans, supposedly as a reaction to the Dobbs decision.
But they are ignoring the overall 1978 feel of the upcoming autumn. The similarities are several. International embarrassments, inflation, an ineffectual president, and a serious majority who think the country is going in the wrong direction will take its toll on the Dems. Did Republicans take majorities in 1978? No. But they gained 15 in the House and 3 in the Senate that year. Enough to take both chambers this year.
Along with VDH and Gingrich, Howard Kurtz is among the top political analysts in America. Here’s what he has to say, “The media are all excited about the latest primaries, touting some promising omens for the Democrats. I’m just going to throw a cautionary flag. When your analysis is based on one obscure district in New York’s Hudson Valley, in a special election in late August, the tea leaves may be muddy. I have no doubt that abortion rights are a motivating factor for pro-choice voters in the wake of the Supreme Court throwing out Roe, and Democratic candidates who don’t use it would be guilty of malpractice. But the fundamental picture hasn’t changed, and Republicans are overwhelmingly likely to take over the House in November.”
He’s right. Yes, the Senate is not looking like a lock but the advantage is with the Republicans. It’s early. Problematic races like PA, Georgia, and Nevada could turn around. It wouldn’t take much.
The House still looks good. Much commentary to the contrary comes from media and Dem sources who are trying to manufacture false momentum. It works this way.
You want some story or party line to gain traction. So then does a secret forest meeting of the boys of Davos happen where they all drink too many dry martinis and ritualistically dance in a circle around a graven image of Adlai Stevenson? Unlikely.
What actually transpires is that a couple of phone calls are made and subsequently there is an op-ed in the NYT or WaPo spouting the desired narrative. The rest of the hive take their cue and voila, evidence of a drip becomes the making of a tsunami.
You get to do that when you own the press. But, one problem. Reality keeps getting in the way. As such, the Dem press gets women frothing over Dobbs. But then alas, the marks fill up their gas tanks and Dobbs pales compared to issues of personal economic importance. Repeat that process at the grocery.
So take these Dem driven prognostications of GOP doom with a bit of salt. Republicans may not run amok in November. But they will do well. One thing that almost certainly will not happen? A blue wave.