In the 1950 midterm elections the question was asked by the Republicans, “Who lost China?” This was after China fell to the Communists in 1949. The Republicans picked up 28 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate in 1950. Republicans also won 6 gubernatorial races. Those results today would give the GOP control of Congress.
Well, the question very well may be asked in the fall, “Who lost Ukraine?” If it is, the answer is as clear now as it was in 1950: The Democrats.
Now, few people outside the Kremlin and its fans want Ukraine to fall. But as bad as the Russian army seems to be, they outnumber the Ukrainians in every significant military category. The West can only supply so much. The numbers on the ground will take their toll. The best that can be hoped for is a negotiated peace. But that’s not going to happen.
Putin hasn’t come all this way, endured sanctions and international condemnation, not to win. The negotiations are likely a Russian maskirova, a mask to cover other operations. One of those operations is reportedly hiring 400 mercenaries, inserted in Kyiv in early February, to kill President Zelenskyy. The soldier of fortune firm The Wagner Group is said to be involved. They have been a global Russian Military Intelligence asset for a number of years.
Thus, even if Zelenskyy eventually escapes to form a government in exile, the chances are Russia will take Ukraine within the next month. We pray we are wrong, but we think not.
The Republicans will use this loss and Afghanistan in the midterms to illustrate the weakness and incompetence of the Biden administration. It won’t be a hard sell, even though Biden has decently played the hand he dealt himself in Ukraine.
So yeah, he’ll get some credit for the international response against Russia and the support for Ukraine. But Republicans will point out loopholes in the sanctions that let Russia keep making massive energy profits. He will get some credit for rushing military aid to Ukraine. But Republicans will rightly counter that it was too little too late.
And Afghanistan? No credit there. It was a total dog’s breakfast. It was the green light for Ukraine, as Putin and Xi took the measure of Biden and found him wanting. The same thing happened to John Kennedy in Vienna in June of 1961. Soviet dictator Nikita Khruschev found Kennedy weak and callow, especially after the Bay of Pigs fiasco. That gave the Russian the green light for the Cuban Missile Crisis. Afghanistan was Biden’s Bay of Pigs.
The Democrats will try and defend by screaming something about Trump and saying Biden saved us from nuclear war. The American people will laugh and make their opinion known at the November polls. It will be a grim day for the Democrats.