Winston Churchill used the same title, The Gathering Storm, to describe the period before WWII when firm action by the Western powers could have stopped Hitler. Instead, there was war with Germany, Italy, and eventually Japan. Like Churchill in the 1930s, some of us publicly warn today. Like him as well, few are listening.
Weak leadership and a gullible obsession with eternal peace made the West then blind to the coming tempest. We are in a similar situation. Three actors in another axis are no doubt coordinating efforts to injure this country and the West during a window of opportunity that lasts until January 2025. China, Russia, and Iran play the parts of Germany, Japan, and Italy in our modern drama of states. Belarus would act with Russia in any move.
We currently see 90,000 Russian troops on the border of Ukraine. The Chinese are trying to intimidate our Asian allies and constantly threaten Taiwan, and Iran has destabilized Iraq and Tehran is close to the new regime in Kabul. Could the West, America and NATO, repulse a Russian-Belarus attack on the Ukraine? Perhaps. Could we do it while if at the same time China attacked Taiwan? No. We could not simultaneously defend Ukraine and Taiwan. What if the Iranians moved into Iraq at the same time? We and our allies would be stretched too thin to move. For gone is a credible two ocean US Navy. Vanished is the airlift capability of a generation ago. We don’t have the troops and even if we did we don’t have the logistics to get them there and keep them fighting. Joe Biden will not only fail to improve the situation, he is actively making it worse by budget cuts and PC policies emanating from the Pentagon.
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Donald Trump did what he could to repair the damage done to our military by Barack Obama. But his tenure was short and it is now back to the Obama playbook in the Biden administration. We are weak and getting weaker. That is inviting war, as the aforementioned unholy trinity see a wounded animal brought low by its own government. They plan on taking advantage of it.
Former US Army Intelligence analyst Kevin Hagen notes that Russian commandos have been observed at the northern border of Belarus. They are not there for the sightseeing, but likely to plan and coordinate special operations against Ukraine. Another former Army colleague and cogent observer of the international scene said this, “If Ukraine happens it is likely that stretching resources would prompt action against Taiwan by China.”
How did we get here? Because every day Joe Biden acts as a walking geopolitical temptation to our foes. His confusion, weakness, feeble demeanor, and lack of leadership wet the jowls of Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and Minsk. They know he will do nothing, despite his words to Taiwan, to deter or respond to an attack on an American ally or on an American interest. He proved that in Kabul. As such, there could be a storm coming, the kind of gale not seen for eighty years, not seen in most of our lifetimes. If it comes, very few will exit it very dry.