One of Donald Trump’s major political achievements was his popularity with black and Latin voters. He doubled and sometimes tripled the numbers of former GOP presidents in this regard.
Without Covid-19 and its political and economic complications he might have gotten close to 40 percent of that vote in 2020. That would have been an unheard of number of minority votes for a modern Republican in a presidential election and would have almost guaranteed him a win. Alas.
But if you did a deep dive into minority support for Trump you saw it came more from men than women by consistent 60-40 margins. Well, those numbers seem to be holding as recent survey research by both parties obtained by this publication shows Joe Biden crashing and burning with black and Latin men. In September internal polls Biden doesn’t crack 45 percent approval with either group. Why?
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Minority men tend to be traditional in their social views and in their perceptions of masculine leadership qualities. Donald Trump is a buccaneer. He exudes strength and confidence to over the top levels. While that may be off-putting to many voters, a majority of minority male voters see in him their version of a strong leader chock full of machismo. The opposite is true of Joe Biden.
While these voters generally remain registered Democrats they seem completely underwhelmed by Biden. And no wonder. His gaffes, his confusion, his obvious physical and mental frailties, and his inability to gain legislative success all contribute to his image with these voters as a weak and bumbling chief executive. But the real test was Afghanistan.
Military prowess is prized amongst traditional men as a virtue. In the minority community military service can be a way to escape the dead end of multigenerational poverty, hence why minorities are represented in the armed forces to a greater degree than they are represented in the population at large.
Thus a virtual surrender, a bugout, a military humiliation like Kabul sits very badly with black and Latin male voters. It goes to the core of their views on effective, inspiring, and heroic leadership. It bespeaks not only a policy failure, but a sense that Biden is personally weak and geopolitically impotent. That is political poison to socially conservative males, who see military strength as a vital factor in national success.
Can Biden arrest this process? Possibly. The main motivation for minority male support of Trump was economic success. Minority employment numbers skyrocketed to historic highs under his administration. If the economy were to turn around by 2024 then there may be some redemption in it for Biden with this voting group.
However, if the economy continues trending badly, coupled with the aforementioned perceived military and geopolitical weakness, then Biden will not only lose more black and Latin male voters, but will hemorrhage to such an extent that Republican majorities with these two groups could be possible. If that happens Democrats can not win the White House.