In a recent New Hampshire poll Joe Biden scored 37 percent for reelection…among Democrats. Those are LBJ 1968 numbers, Carter 1980 numbers. No, I stand corrected by myself. They’re worse.
This guy is bait just dangling off the ship for one or more Dem sharks to devour in one gulp. Not to mention most Republicans. So, how will this play out?
First it’s gonna get worse for Biden before it gets better. Supply chain, defund the police, Afghanistan, will all be laid at his feet next year. That and history spell a Republican congressional takeover. That means his agenda dies. His last two years, if he politically survives that long, could be worse than Carter’s. The boys and girls on the Hill and at the DNC are already nervous on this subject. After the GOP takes Congress they will go apoplectic. Watch for the knives to then come out, as nobody wants to go down with the sinking SS Biden. The situation works out to two likely scenarios: Harris or primary challenge.
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The Harris gambit is obvious. Elected Dems become “concerned” about the president’s health. The media starts to report on it more. A White House insider leaks to the Washington Post that Biden “is not himself” and “is under a lot of stress”. Then one obscure Dem member of Congress “regretfully” brings up the 25th Amendment. Like Richard of Gloucester initially protesting he wants nothing to do with the crown, Dem leaders publicly disagree and say Biden is “going through a rough time” but will be fine.
Then more leaks, perhaps a video, showing him more dazed and confused. Then a more prominent Dem, probably a senator, brings up the 25th. After that the subject builds to a crescendo. All this time, more Gloucester, Harris demures out of contrived loyalty. But Dem leaders, in a plan already on the books, are adamant. Finally, in mid 2023 or a bit earlier, the 25th Amendment is invoked and Biden, like that pet your parents sent to “a farm”, is ushered off stage.
The primary challenge takes a leaf from Gene McCarthy and 1968. Bernie Sanders, or another less obviously socialist Dem senator, starts hitting Biden from the left after the 2022 House and Senate loss. They say the defeat was because Biden wasn’t socialist enough. They gather around them the 40 percent of the party and dozens of members of both houses of Congress who share their views. They launch the party insurrection in late 2023.
All will center around Iowa and New Hampshire, hence the danger to Biden of the current 37 percent approval for reelection. If an insurgent candidate of the hard left can get 40 percent or higher in either contest then Dem bigwigs will pressure Biden to drop his reelection bid for “the good of the party.” Then, all hell breaks loose for the Dems. Stay tuned.
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