If it’s true that politics never sleeps then a corrolary could be that it’s never too early to handicap a race. So, all things considered by today’s information, here is the smart money on the 2024 general election. Obviously, a lot of things will change between now and then.
But for our purposes we’ll assume Biden is the Dem nominee and obviously Republicans mentioned have got the convention nod. We’ll also stipulate that if Harris is the Dem nominee she’ll do worse than Biden. Remember, this is a horse race analysis, not necessarily my preferences. So, don’t whine.
Race 1) Biden v Trump: Biden win. This is a hard one to call, as so much will happen before 2024. Trump has to win in the primaries and Biden must still be sentient enough to run. However, only Grover Cleveland has pulled off non consecutive presidential wins. Why? Because old presidents are yesterday’s news. But not this guy. Nevertheless, assuming he’s the nominee, I can’t see him adding to his 2020 numbers and that’s not enough. Trump may also have legal complications by then. All bets are off though if Biden really screws the pooch so badly even the press can’t ignore it or cover it up.
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2) Biden v DeSantis: DeSantis win. Voters haven’t voted for substance over image since 1956. In this case, the Republicans win at least on image and then some. Assuming Biden plods along in his current mode, the nation will be tired of him in a Jimmy Carter fashion. We’d have a family perfect, war vet, naval officer, popular governor versus a guy who probably can’t change his own diaper. If we don’t already have the Congress, DeSantis brings them in as well.
3) Biden v Cruz: Biden win. Cruz is the most capable guy in Washington and would make an excellent president, but a below average presidential candidate. He’s just comes off as too smart to the riff raff he’d have to win over. The press would paint him as a dark sinister Goldwater. And the beard? Kiss of death. But without it he kinda looks like a young Grandpa Munster. Cruz belongs on the Supreme Court.
4) Biden v Haley or Noem: Republican win. Why? The female factor, both Republican women are articulate and telegenic, and both can carry moderates back to the GOP. Though Haley would do that a bit easier than Noem.
5) Biden v Pompeo: Toss up. He may be the best qualified candidate for the job, given his background and resume. But does Mike Pompeo have what it takes to get through a cutthroat primary season? Not sure about that. But if he did that, improves his image, and comes up with a more dynamic persona then he’d have a good shot against Biden.
Much of this assumes, if their guy is not the Republican nominee, that Trump types don’t throw a tantrum and sit on their hands in November. Per Harris? She’d lose to every Republican noted.