Most voters vote on three very basic things: the economy, domestic security, and war and peace.
The economy, though recovering with the recent good and improving job numbers, is still problematic for the president. The president is fighting hard on domestic security but cities are still ablaze with the terrorism of Antifa and Black Lives Matter. But right now we are at peace. That could change, though not in a big way. But perhaps, by design, in a way that could hurt the reelection chances of the president.
If the president’s poll numbers start to improve in September, and they will especially after the debates- if there are any, then China and Iran may manufacture a small national security crisis to worry Americans about the state of war and peace. They hope this will be the final nail in Trump’s political coffin, as voters react to the seemingly endless profusion of turmoil and controversy.
It could be an Iranian move against our Navy or one of our allies in the Persian Gulf. It could be an attack on an American flagged or allied flagged tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. It could be a Chinese move in the Spratleys or a threat to Taiwan. Both these American foes know that if Donald Trump remains president they will have a much rougher time of it than they would get from the corrupt, feeble-minded, and possibly compromised Joe Biden.
It would be a “Wag the Dog” (the best political film ever made) scenario in reverse. The movie posited a fake war to keep a president in office. Our adversaries would go right up to the brink of a real war to drive a president from office.
If this happens our allies, likely except Israel and the UK, will stay on the sidelines unless they are directly threatened. If they are they will sidle up like scared puppies and demand our protection. If they are not most would prefer the timid and confused Joe Biden to a current American president who puts American interests first.
Of course, if the president defends our interests or those of our allies he will be denounced in the media, by the Democrats, and on the streets as a warmonger. The various street scum of Antifa and Black Lives Matter would add an anti-war flavor to their playbook, as gray ponytail types would emerge from the mists of time to relive their pro-communist anti-Vietnam War youth.
In a strange way, just as was the recent Michelle Obama move to keep herself off the Biden ticket, if this happens it means the president is knocking at the door of victory and his enemies, both foreign and domestic, will do anything to stop that up to and including colluding with a foreign power to arrange a challenge to American national security.
They think with the virus still afoot, the economy not fully recovered, and now a potential war, America will turn tail and run on the president. Well, they don’t know America and, they don’t know the president.