If 2016 was any indication Vegas and other oddsmakers call outcomes of presidential elections much better than media-hired pollsters. Vegas had Trump winning the race more than a week before the day of the 2016 November election. Every major media outlet had Hillary winning by double digits only hours before the polls closed. Hence the great amusement for some, and the gnashing of teeth for others, when she lost.

Forbes published a piece on Friday on the presidential race odds for 2020. There is bad news for Joe Biden on two fronts. One, smart money says he will lose to Trump. Two, the odds are starting to show he may not even get the nomination. Why? Because Hillary smells his weakness.

Forbes: “His (Biden’s) current odds spell out that a $800 wager on Biden winning the nomination would only payout $100, and while sportsbooks number project him to be the runaway winner, the sudden decline in his odds hint to a lack of confidence and uncertainty in his party. Barring an unforeseeable event, all signs point to a Trump-Biden Presidential Election showdown. Still the betting favorite, President Trump sits at -120 (Bet $120 to win $100) over Biden at +135.”

Yepper, a close election but the president pulls it off. Even with the virus, even with some of the worst economic conditions since The Great Depression, Trump still edges out Sleepy Joe. But, Forbes isn’t finished.

“While both Biden and Trumps odds now sit close to where they were listed just a month ago, it is Hillary Clinton that has seen the biggest shifts in terms of her chances to win the Presidency, moving from +6000 all the way to +2000 in less than a month. Now at 8/1 to win the Democratic nomination and 22/1 to win the US Election, Clinton’s jump highlights a bigger issue facing Biden in that his party doesn’t seem to have confidence in his ability to get the job done. The betting trends and polls reflect the desire for a new candidate to emerge and take the reins from a bandwagon they feel is going nowhere fast.”

So Biden is actually getting it in the neck from three angles, two of them within his own party. One, he loses to Trump. Two, almost every day some former Sanders aide from the socialist wing of the party hits Biden on not being prog extremist enough. Three, the Democrat establishment, (which he thought he had locked up) in the guise of Hillary Clinton, is casting nervous glances in his general direction. They do so because they, as we, can see what a weak nominee he will be. They, as we, can easily figure out what Trump will do to him in debate. And they, and we, know that Vegas understands things that DC does not.

Forbes concluded: “Betting odds continue to favor Kamala Harris for the VP nomination, with Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren closing the gap.” Yup. that seems right. There is even a rumor floating around DC that Harris has just bought an entirely new wardrobe. If so, Biden should think again. The Democrats already have her home state of California. They need Whitmer’s Michigan and Grisham’s New Mexico.

This piece was written by David Kamioner on May 11, 2020. It originally appeared in LifeZette and is used by permission.

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