The numbers are out on the economic performance of the coronavirus-ravaged U.S. economy in the first quarter of 2020—they are not good. The GDP shrank by a large 4.8%. Economists had been expecting only a 4% drop. This ended the longest economic expansion in American history, lasting over ten years since the first quarter of 2009 when the economy contracted by 4.4% as a consequence of the 2008 financial crisis.

President Trump has warned that the second quarter could be even worse, thus putting the nation into a recession. And there you have it. Voters make their presidential decision on one main topic: the economy. Secondary is war and peace. This year, coronavirus response will also be a large factor. The Democrats know this. So what you will soon hear from the Democrats from now until November is that the president bungled the coronavirus response by acting late and his mismanaged response plunged America into economic crisis.

If one of our adversaries like China or Iran, not to mention North Korea possibly under new leadership, were to challenge American interests anywhere on the globe (especially after the president said he would “blow Iranian ships out of the water”) then the unholy trifecta of a bad economy, military conflict, and a perceived dropped ball on coronavirus response could (inane cheerleading by mindless partisans aside) prove problematic to the president’s chances for reelection.

The key may be the third-quarter numbers, which we’ll get right before the election. If they are up the, president can claim the economy is rebounding. If they are down, show no change, or little change, he will have a hard time making that argument. He also runs up against a months-long drumbeat from the Democrats and press that the economy is tanking. He has to turn around that message with good third-quarter numbers just a week or two before the election. And if U.S. forces are engaged somewhere and we’re taking casualties? Not good optics for the president. Not good at all.

This is not to say he can’t win. The economic numbers could turn around early, he could withstand the temptation to respond to an international provocation (he has before), and the coronavirus could be receding into the distance, proving the wisdom of his virus response. Though if he does not act, if the U.S. gets pushed around on the world stage, he risks looking weak. Also not good, especially for a tough-guy Republican.

So, as in much in politics, we’ll wait and see what happens. Scenarios and models change on a day-to-day basis as new data emerges. But we now can guess with high confidence what the Democrats will be saying during the fall election season. One can hope their message falls on deaf ears with the 10% of swing voters who decide the presidency.

This piece was written by David Kamioner on April 29, 2020. It originally appeared in LifeZette and is used by permission.

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