I am not going to be shy about what I think is going to happen on this midterm Election Day 2018. I am putting it in writing so everyone will know exactly what I said. I am going out on a limb some might say but I was right when I said Donald Trump would win the Presidency in 2016 so ignore my insights at your own peril.
Lets start with the races for the United States Senate. I have said for several months that I expected the Republicans to pick up 4 to 6 seats. I still firmly believe that is the right call. However if a few things swing toward the red team Tuesday the margin could even get larger.
Lets start with the states I believe will flip from a Democrat to a Republican. North Dakota is the easiest call. Heidi Heitkamp has been headed for the exit for a couple of years now whether she knew it or not. Kevin Cramer will lead the class of 2019. R+1
Claire McCaskill has had some incredible luck with terrible GOP candidates in the past but not so this year. Claire’s luck ahs run out and Josh Hawley the Republican Attorney General will be the next Senator from the Show-Me State. R+2
The next big flip will come in Indiana. Joe Donnelly and the Democratic Party has pulled some dirty tricks along the way- including Democrats buying ads to support the Libertarian candidate as a ‘true conservative’. In the end it will fail and Mike Braun will slide across the finish line with another win. R+3
The rest of the Senate races could be dicey but I don’t think for a minute that Florida voters are really going to support an outright communist for Governor nor do I think they will reject the very popular current governor Rick Scott in his bid for the Senate seat held by Bill Nelson. This will be one of the races that sets the tone for the night and I believe Scott will bring it home. R+4
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I used to live in Montana and I think those in Big Sky Country have had enough of the inside the swamp attitude of Jon Tester and will soon be sending him home in favor of Matt Rosendale. R+5
The Democrats headed into campaign with high hopes of stealing seats in bright red states like Texas and Tennessee. Those were never much more than pipe dreams and Ted Cruz will cruise to an easy win in the Lone Star State and Marsha Blackburn will move from the House to the Senate. Republicans are also likely to hold the seats in Arizona and Nevada.
That takes me to some possible big surprises- the first in Michigan where John James has tightened the race with incumbent Debbie Stabenow to single digits. The race in West Virginia has also collapsed to just 5 points in the final few days of the race and Joe Manchin could lose his seat to Pat Morrisey. That would be another huge blow to the Democrats. You should watch both quite closely through the evening.
The biggest wild card of all is the race in New Jersey where Bob Menendez- the dirtiest of all sitting US Senators is facing a tough challenge from Bob Hugins keep an eye on this one too. It appears from much of the polling that Republicans are enjoying a bit of an Election Day surge and with so many races it could be enough to deliver several key Senate seats.
The same is true for House races around the country. We had been told the Democrats would be riding a ‘blue wave’ into Washington but a very strong economy and almost no message for voters- it could turn out as a very tough day for the left.
Right now I am thinking the Dems could struggle to pick up 19 seats- and they could also perform better and have enough seats to give the gavel back to Nancy Pelosi but it won’t be by much if they do. Some are predicting as many as 52 Democratic seats but that is simply non-sense.
The one place Democrats could perform better is with races for Governors around the country- we will see.
That is where I am laying my money.
Republicans will pick 4 to 6 US Senate seats and Democrats will get 19-29 seats in the House and a few Governors houses will change blue as well.