Pollsters and pundits have been saying all weekend that Michigan is in play because of the high number of non-college educated, middle class white voters. Really? That seems to ignore a huge problem for the Democrats if they actually believe that. Michigan is the least white of the big prizes in the rust-belt states.
Lets start with Ohio and Iowa. Donald Trump has been holding steady leads in all the polling in both of those states for weeks. Recent numbers show his lead in Iowa opening up to 7 points. Iowa is 91% white so that would fit the narrative. In Ohio Trump has held steady and is maintaining a lead of three or four points. Ohio is 82% white so that holds true too I guess. Michigan however is a bit more diverse with a population that is only 79% white and yet all the big guns are in the state as we head to Election Day and the so called experts say Michigan is in play because of white working middle class voters.
If that’s true then Democrats need to look at a couple of other big prizes that have larger populations of white voters that are squarely in the middle class. Pennsylvania has 20 Electoral Votes and should be close with a population 82% white. Wisconsin weighs in with 10 electoral Votes and a population that is 86% white. In Minnesota you’ll find 10 more electoral votes and a population that is a whopping 87% white.
So if the argument is that white working class voters are breaking for Donald Trump in Michigan and are the key in to his success in Ohio and Iowa then why wouldn’t you think he’d collect Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota along with the 40 Electoral Votes they represent?
Oh, and if that is the case you should go ahead and put New Hampshire on the Trump win board because the Granite State is solidly white at 94% of the population.
I can guarantee you that if white, non-college educated voters break for Trump and turn out to vote the way the all the talking heads are saying- he will be elected easily and doesn’t need Florida to get it done. If they are wrong about white working class voters then Hillary Clinton will waltz into the White House.
Demographics in Key Swing States
Iowa 91% white
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Ohio 83% white
Pennsylvania 82% white
New Hampshire 94% white
Wisconsin 86% white
Minnesota 87% white
Michigan 79% white