If the election were held today September 16, 2016 Donald J. Trump would easily win the race to the White House. A flurry of new polls in just the past couple of days are showing a stunning resurgence of a candidate that many thought was cooked just 30 days ago.
The reversal of fortune is almost unprecedented but then again this entire election year has been one of firsts. In mid-August Hillary Clinton was running 8 and 10 points ahead and many states that at first looked competitive were moved to the safe column but today many of those states and not only not safe but have moved all the way into the leaning Trump column.
Let’s go to the list of so-called battleground states and see where they are today.
-Michigan Clinton +3 38-35, Detroit News
-Iowa Trump +8 45-37, Monmouth
-Ohio Trump +5 46-41, CNN/ORC
-Ohio Trump +3 42-39, Suffolk
-Ohio Trump +5 48-43, Bloomberg
-Missouri Trump +13 47-34, Emerson
-Virginia Clinton +3 40-37, Univ. Mary Washington
-Georgia Trump +6 45-39, Emerson
-Florida Trump +4 50-46, CNN/ORC
-North Carolina tie Civitas
-Nevada Trump +2 44-42, Monmouth
-Maine Clinton +3 42-39, Colby College
-Maine CD-2 Trump +10 47-37, Colby College
-Colorado Trump +4 42-38, Emerson
Based on the latest polling and all indicators including momentum, Donald Trump would secure at least 275 Electoral votes and the Presidency if voters were going to the polls today. His victory might even be more significant because there hasn’t been any good polling recently from Pennsylvania.
The election however isn’t today and there are three major debates between now and November 8, 2016.
I should point out one other intangible in this race that nobody has focused on in some time and that is, Donald Trump has consistently outperformed the polls in primary match-ups over and over again. In some of the primary races he out-performed the polls by nearly 10 points. If Trump out performs the polls by just two or three points he could steamroll past 300 electoral votes.
This means the biggest date on the calendar right now is September 26th, which is the first Presidential debate. I think the audience could crack 100 million people watching that night- I know I will.