The political fallout from the Roe decision is ongoing. As such, Democrats crow Roe will cost the GOP their presumed congressional victory and nervous Republicans wonder if angry young women will turn out in droves to thwart their plans.
While there should be legitimate concern for Republicans over Roe, the decision would have served the GOP better after the midterms, the fear of a tsunami of furious young females overwhelming the polls is not historically viable or logically apparent. Could Roe cost here and there in tight races in battleground states? Yes. Will it stop a Republican House majority? No. Gerry, not Elbridge, and the Pacemakers get the drift.
The simplest and greatest reason is that abortion is not a daily reality most people deal with. But food and gas prices are. Voters usually vote on guns and butter, war and prosperity. Well, war is not an issue, but the economy, remembering Carville’s pithy phrase, is. The constant drumbeat of rising prices at the pump and noticeably higher food prices will be the death of a thousand cuts for a Democrat House.
Historically the youth vote, the under thirty vote, doesn’t matter. People of that age are too self-obsessed and focused on frivolity to care much about larger issues. That ends with marriage, mortgages, and kids; which happens to most these days in their 30s.
Those things also make younger voters more conservative, as now they have much to lose. The 20 somethings who actually care about politics do already vote, and thus will add no voters to the current Democrat numbers.
The last time youth was so allegedly agitated was in the fight over Vietnam. Multitudes of them marched against the war. Yet in 1968 the combined Republican and ultraconservative (Wallace) vote, with similar predictions of the liberal young flooding the polls, was 56 percent. That was a double digit win over Democrats and left wing attitudes. In 1972 the Democrats went farther and sported a youth-loved peace candidate in George McGovern. He got clobbered worse than the Dems did in 1968 and lost by a 60 percent landslide. Thus at the modern pinnacle of youth political involvement, these were the outcomes. The youth vote since then has not significantly swung an election either way.
As for angry women of any age, those most adamantly pro-abortion mostly live in states where abortion will still be legal. This logically will cut down on their turnout enthusiasm regarding the issue, for the Democrats will be asking them to agitate and vote over somebody else’s problem.
The Big Lie that abortion was halted by the Roe decision, as opposed to just sent back to the states for their action, will play out exposed by the failure of women in blue states to care much about what happens to their perceived flyover sisterhood.
Yup, Roe could cost a seat here and there. It could bring the Republican House majority down to 45ish from a possible 52. But that loss of potential seats may not transpire if inflation continues to rage and or Biden is humiliated again on the world stage. So the GOP should stop listening to Democrat prognostications and let go of their clutched pearls. It’s gonna be alright.