Stalin supposedly said it doesn’t matter who votes, it matters who counts the votes. As in economics and other matters like not being a raving psychopath, Stalin was not exactly up to par. Counting matters, as we saw in 2018 in California and in 2020 nationally. But who votes and for whom matters too. A lot. Demographics tell the story before it happens.
Over political eras we’ve seen groups change their affiliation. Black used to be solid Republicans. The Irish were Democrats. The 1930s-60s flipped them to the other major party. Some groups, like Latins, are not monolithic. The young are usually Democrat, but never vote in large numbers. They become Republicans as they mature and gain real world experience. That is, except for Jews and blacks. They largely remain Democrats. And as has been the case for some time, Independents decide elections. Hence why those perceived as extremists have a rough go of it.
The last 30 years, since Pat Buchanan’s culture war speech at the 1992 Republican Convention, has bifurcated the GOP. Held together by the Cold War, they have split into Trump populists and conservatives. Trump himself tore the political world further asunder by his excellent outreach to minorities. How will these factors play out in 2022?
1) The Biden factor- Expect all groups to go redder, as Biden is a curse to Democrats. Black and Latins may not go as red as they did for Trump in 2020, but their GOP numbers will be better than usual. Latins may surprise there and go heavily GOP. Biden will cost the Dems 7-9 points overall nationwide.
2) Women- A swing towards the GOP for suburban women, with young women slightly more red, older women much more red. Bets are off if the Supremes gut Roe. Then it’s a wash, as any advantage the Republicans would have would be offset by angry harpies turning out in droves.
3) Men- They’re Republicans, duh.
4) Independents- Tricky. They loved Trump in 2020 then broke up with him in 2022. Will Biden bring them back to the GOP? Did they ever leave? Remember, as Trump lost in 2020 (Get over it, Appomattox happened. Trump just wasn’t as gracious as Lee) the Republicans picked up 15 seats in the House. So maybe it wasn’t the GOP that lost in 2020, but merely Trump. Given that and Biden, Independents should come out big time for Republicans.
5) White working class- This is the group that Trump brought over and who remain the base of his support. If Trump can get them out for him next year it will portend good things per his potential power at the 2024 polls. However, Trump isn’t on the ticket and that will damper WWC ardor for the Republicans. They will swing Republican, but likely not in 2020 numbers.
6) States- Watch for big swings to the Republicans in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia. Most of GOP House pickups will be there and in other battleground states.