- Steve Gruber - https://www.stevegruber.com -

Is Taiwan Next?

This publication predicted last year at this time that the Taliban would move in Afghanistan if Biden was elected. It was not a hard call to make, as nature abhors a vacuum. In this case the vacuum being global American leadership under Biden.

Lenin reportedly said, “Probe with the bayonet. If you hit steel withdraw. If you hit mush advance.” The Taliban knew they’d hit mush in Joe Biden. Do the Chinese Communists know it too?

CNN: The fall of Kabul marks the collapse of the international image and credibility of the US,” a commentary from Chinese state news agency Xinhua said Monday.

“Following the blows of the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, the decay of the American hegemony has become an undisputed reality. Its failure in Afghanistan is another turning point in that spiral fall,” it added.

The Global Times, a state-run nationalist tabloid, meanwhile, has repeatedly played up what it described as the “unreliability of US commitment to its allies,” suggesting the self-governing island of Taiwan could face the same fate as Afghanistan in the event of conflict with China. “Once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Straits, the island’s defense will collapse in hours and the US military won’t come to help.” the Global Times said in an editorial Monday.” Even CNN can see what could be coming. But not the Biden administration.

Has Biden moved to normalize relations with Free China, even as we designate Beijing as a global adversary? No. Has it moved to protect Free China, knowing that several of our strategic assets are manufactured there? No. Why? Because the influence of the Chinese Communist Party casts a wide net. From Hollywood to academia, from music to trade, from Congress to the states, China rains money down on those willing to toe its line. Or, they have other ways of persuasion. Ask Eric Swalwell.

The scenario is easy enough to conjure. The Chinese would not launch an amphibious invasion. Too potentially costly. They would exert maximum internal pressure on Taipei through domestic pressure and paramilitary subversion. Then the word would go out to Washington, stay clear or we ruin your economy in a day. That’s what it’s come to. Yes, the Chinese economy would also take a massive hit. But the Chicoms would take the risk to achieve their long time strategic objective.

Joe Biden, faced with the economic threat and without the courage to defy a regime who may have compromised his family during their many economic deals with the ruling party, folds. He rationalizes as he did the with Afghan bugout speech on Monday, supposedly not wanting to commit US forces to an unwinnable war.

But nobody is asking him to do that. It’s a straw man. What he should be doing is sending strong signals, normalizing diplomatic relations, and arming Taiwan before a possible move by Beijing. However, that won’t happen. Thus, the Chinese will start their action on Taiwan by the summer of 2022. Bet on it.