Strap yourself in, as this is going to be the most controversial campaign and election season in modern memory, and maybe in American history. For this analyst, at this time, the question comes down to turnout.

America is still a right of center country despite generations of leftist indoctrination. Will the great majority of law-abiding and patriotic American citizens turn out and vote for the president? Will the silent majority go to the polls for Trump in big numbers? If not, Biden wins. Here’s why.

Message- The economic numbers are getting better for the president and the country is at peace, for now. Knowing those are the factors that turn elections, the Democrats will lie to turn those rising Trump positives into negatives. They will fabricate outrageous false claims, like the recent imaginary presidential insult to veterans, and have their lapdog press do the same. It is reminiscent of the tactics of LBJ who once told an aide to spread a rumor that a senatorial primary opponent had romantic adventures with pigs. When Johnson’s own aides said it was ridiculous, as no one would believe it, Johnson replied, “Let him prove he doesn’t.” Advantage Dems.

Money and targeting- The GOP and Trump will go into the fall with cash to spare. But the Dems will have enough to play in the big leagues. So it comes down to where you spend and on what. The Dems could be getting nervous about Virginia, as they recently made a big media buy in that supposedly safe blue state. The black vote is also a concern for them. The Republicans will target the swing states of Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico. They might shore up Arizona too. The spending will be heavy on Get Out the Vote efforts and targeted media. The GOP is making a play for black voters, the Dems for Vichy Republicans. Advantage Republicans.

Debates- Both sides will play head games. Both will try to lower expectations for themselves and raise them for the other guy. Biden is a bleeder in the ring with Mike Tyson. He either won’t show up or will run around the ring trying to stay out of range. If he gets in close or tries anything bold Trump will knock him into next Sunday. Trump has to not beat up on him so badly he elicits sympathy for Biden and Trump better watch his tendency to shoot from the hip too much. But he has to do that and still retain the entertaining style and puckish tone that his base loves. That will be an interesting challenge for this very off the cuff street fighter. As for the veep debate, Harris will be embarrassed. Advantage, toss up right now. But the press will totally call it for the Dems no matter what happens.

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Election Day- A melee, a clusterintercourse, a dog’s breakfast. Can you think of any other terms for comple confusion, no credible standards, and ballot corruption that would make Mayor Daley blush? It’s gonna be that bad and worse. So stay tuned.