Michigan Governor, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer, made some very grave predictions about the pandemic we are facing with Covid-19 and forecasted millions of death from Italy all the way to her home state.
In her declaration this week to shut down all “non-essential” workers and businesses in Michigan for at least 21 days Governor Whitmer said, “If we stay our current trajectory, just like Italy, over 70% of our people could get infected with Covid-19. Of that 7-million projected about one million of those would be hospitalized!”
Based on this assertion, not only is it going to become much worse in Michigan, Italy according to the Governor is on its way to a stunning 42 million infections and based on its current extremely high death rate of 9 and a half percent, almost 4 million dead Italians. Has anyone predicted this kind of dire outcome for Italy?
Don’t be mistaken, Italy is in bad shape right now with more than 70,000 infections and 7,000 deaths, but that is a whole apocalypse away from 42 million sick and 4 million dead.
Governor Whitmer’s numbers would mean 7 million Michigan residents would acquire Covid-19 infections and even using the far more realistic 1% death rate we would bury some 70,000 residents here.
So, it begs the question, what is Governor Whitmer doing about it? Is she building hospitals or asking for them to be built? Is she ready to lock Michigan down for a lot longer than 3 weeks?
Now in all fairness, there is plenty of evidence the rate of infection for Covid-19 is about 3 times the rate of seasonal flu. However, even those numbers are not getting us to the point of pushing tens of thousands of Michigan residents into mass graves.
What if the Governor is right and we are on a “trajectory” to have 70% ill with Covid-19, then maybe she should assume an Italian style death rate too. That would mean something on the order of 665,000 dead residents in Michigan.
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For the record, a series of worst-case scenarios from a variety of doctors and health organizations puts the total death rate in America at about 2.8 million people. That is if everything fails and the virus runs wild. That is the worst-case scenario for the entire country from a slew of “experts” and Governor Whitmer would have Michigan residents believe her relatively small state could make up nearly a quarter of all fatalities.
Well, that seems a bit too doom and gloom for me.
I am not saying there isn’t reason for very serious concern, there is. We have already seen the numbers explode for those infected. The number of dead continue to rise. Including a 38-year-old 911 operator in Detroit. However, we need to remain sane when discussing these potential outcomes and there is a world of difference between Milan, Italy and Milan (pronounced My-lun) Michigan.
In fact, there are some very big differences between Italy and Michigan that will likely impact the outcome of the Covid-19 pandemic.
First, Italy is about 20% larger in land size, but has 6 times as many people with an average density of 540 people per square mile. Michigan’s density is only 174 people per square mile. And let’s be honest, population density is a huge factor on how fast and how far an infectious disease may range. That has not changed for Covid-19.
Yes, Michigan, like any state, will have significant healthcare challenges in its most densely populated areas over the coming weeks. Many will die and hospitals could certainly be overrun with patients. Combine that with healthcare workers falling ill from the virus, this will only complicate the problems we face and elevate how many friends and neighbors we lose.
Having said all of that, at this current moment, looking at all the studies and all the information I am not willing to subscribe to the idea we are about to lose somewhere between 70,000 and nearly 700,000 residents to Covid-19.
Italy has just reached 70,000 infected and Governor Whitmer is predicting we could have ten times that many dead.
I’m sorry, but I will defer to the math on this one and a Johns Hopkins University study, which found the United States was better prepared for this pandemic than any other nation on earth.
Do you ever wonder if there are those among us that are just hoping for us to get destroyed- just so they can be right?